NFL offenses have been struggling this season due to numerous quarterbacks being injured, resulting in teams having to rely on backup players. As a result, bettors have found success by betting the under in points totals wagers for the first nine weeks of the season. In prime-time games, scoring has been scarce, and unders have been successful in 22 out of 29 games, boasting a success rate of 75.8%.
Overall, betting the under has resulted in an 83-52-1 record for a 61.5% success rate this season. In Week 9 alone, unders went 11-3 in 14 games, including all three prime-time games. The low-scoring trend can be seen in numerous games throughout the season, including the Pittsburgh Steelers victory over the Tennessee Titans on “Thursday Night Football,” where the under just barely came in with a points total of 36.5 over/under.
The struggle continued on “Sunday Night Football” with a match between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, with the Bengals ultimately winning 24-18, surpassing the expected total of 51.5 over/under. On “Monday Night Football,” the Los Angeles Chargers defeated the New York Jets 27-6, with the points total closing at 41, resulting in a successful under bet.
This season has seen a number of teams scoring less than 20 points per game, with the New York Giants averaging a league-low 11.2 points per game. In fact, the collective offense for this season is tied for the lowest-scoring NFL season in the last decade, with teams averaging just 21.7 points per game.
Week 9 saw a significant number of backup quarterbacks starting an unprecedented eight out of 14 games, and oddsmakers are now setting points totals lower for the upcoming Week 10 games to account for the trend. Six out of the 14 games have a points total of under 40, with two prime-time games having rookie and backup quarterbacks facing off.
The New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers have been two of the worst under teams this season, with both boasting a strong 8-1 record at hitting the under, indicating a 89% success rate. This trend shows that with many teams struggling offensively due to injuries and reliance on backups or rookies, betting the under has been a lucrative strategy for bettors.